Drought worsens area fire conditions

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With no noticeable rain in Gonzales County in more than three weeks, the area is not only faced with drought but a very heightened state of fire danger, county officials noted.

There is no burn ban currently in place for Gonzales County, with the last burn ban having been rescinded by commissioners on Aug. 30, but the county has seen its risk for wildfires increase by nearly 20 percent since that time.

“I think its dry and we definitely need a burn ban,” said Gonzales County Emergency Management Coordinator Jimmy Harless. “We need to be very careful, especially with trucks coming in on the interstate and on the highways because all it takes is just a spark. We have a dry wind and less humidity and that can be problematic.

“We got just a little rain a few weeks ago, which allowed us to green up some, but since then all that fuel has dried up, and when you have fuel with dry winds and less humidity, wind plus fuel and drought  equals not good.”

“A burn ban right now would be a good thing,” added Sheriff Keith Schmidt, who also formerly served as Gonzales’ fire chief. “I know the commissioners catch a lot of heat politically whenever they have to put one on and they try their best to accommodate people who want to get work done.

“It’s very dry out there right now and it’s dangerous. I worry about the safety of our firefighters having to go out and try to fight any fires that get started because people are not being careful when it’s like this.”

No rain

The last measurable rainfall in Gonzales County was reported on Sept. 20, when the rain gauge at Gonzales County Station 5, located 3.8 miles southwest of Gonzales, received a reported 0.3 inches of precipitation, while GC Station 30, located seven miles WNW of Waelder, received 0.14 inches. Measurable rain is considered to be more than just a trace.

Prior to that, the last measurable rainfall was on Sept. 14, when Station 21, located 4.4 miles NNW Of Gonzales, received 0.82 inches and Station 25, located 0.6 miles south of Gonzales, received 0.81 inches. The last time any station reported at least an inch of rain was on Sept. 8, when Station 31, located 7.6 miles south of Luling, got one inch of rain.

For the month of September, Gonzales County reported 2.4 inches of rain, with the wettest day being on Sept. 14. The monthly average for Gonzales County since 2013 has been 3.4 inches, so Gonzales County received an inch less rain in 2022 than average. Overall, the county has only received 11.1 inches for the entire year — some 27.7 inches below the yearly average of 38.8 inches. The 2022 daily average is 0.05 inches, which is 50 percent of the daily average of 0.1 inches since 2013. And in 2022, the county only reported 40 wet days out of a total of 284 days so far — an average of 14 percent. And 10 of those actually came in September.

The wettest day so far in 2022 was Jan. 31, when the county received 1.7 inches of rain. The wettest day since 2013 was the Oct. 14, 2021, rain bomb, which dropped 13.2 inches of rainfall on the county and caused flooding along both the San Marcos and Guadalupe rivers.

Limited relief could be on the horizon. There is a 58 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms on Sunday, Oct. 16, and a 60 percent chance of precipitation on Monday, Oct. 17, as temperatures are expected to only reach a high of 81 degrees. Meanwhile, Tuesday, Oct. 18, will see a high of only 72 and a 50 percent chance of showers with temps reaching a low of 54.

High KBDI 

Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS), which monitors wildfire conditions for the state, uses the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) for determination of drought conditions within the State of Texas. KBDI was developed by John L. Keetch and George Byram with the US Forest Service Southeastern Research Station to correlate the effects of drought on wildfire potential.

The KBDI is based on a daily water balance, where a drought factor is balanced with precipitation and soil moisture (assumed to have a maximum storage capacity of eight inches) and is expressed in hundredths of an inch of soil moisture depletion. 

The KBDI attempts to measure the amount of precipitation necessary to return the soil to full field capacity. It is a closed system ranging from 0 to 800, where 0 represents a saturated soil, and 800 an absolutely dry soil. At any point along the scale, the KBDI value indicates the amount of precipitation it would take to bring the moisture level back to zero, or saturation. 

On Tuesday, Oct. 11, Gonzales County had a KBDI average of 685, with a high of 746 in the northern and eastern portions of the county and a low of 566 south of Smiley towards the DeWitt County line.

This represents an increase of 148 points over the average of 537 reported on Sept. 1, two days after the burn ban was lifted.

When the KDBI falls between 600-800, this is often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep-burning fires with extreme intensities can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.

The situation is just as dire in neighboring Lavaca County, where on Oct. 11, the KBDI index average for Lavaca County was up to 646, with the highest reading in the county at 728, and the minimum at 529.

“Our fire departments across the county are again seeing an increase in calls out to grass fires, and without any chance of significant rainfall predicted in the near future, conditions are expected to deteriorate,” stated Lavaca County OEM Coordinator Egon Barthels. “We encourage everyone to take the simple extra precautions to help prevent wildfires, and stress on our volunteer fire departments, and emergency personnel.”

Other reported KDBIs from neighboring counties include:
• Caldwell: Average 654. High 730. Low 570.

• DeWitt: Average 551. High 723. Low 443.

• Fayette: Average 690. High 741. Low 595.

• Guadalupe: Average 725. High 782. Low 662.

• Karnes: Average 539. High 649. Low 408.

• Wilson: Average 611. High 738. Low 420.

Drought conditions

According to the US Drought Monitor’s latest update, conditions for Gonzales County worsened as the amount of the county under extreme drought has grown to 40.77 percent, while 84.51 percent of the county is at least in severe drought and 100 percent is in moderate drought.

Moderate drought impacts include but are not limited to, crops stunted, partial livestock liquidation, and an increase in wildfire frequency. Severe drought impacts include, but are not limited to, very poor pasture conditions; hard soil, hindering planting; crop yields decrease; wildfire danger is severe.

Under extreme drought, impacts are soil has large cracks; soil moisture is very low; dust and sand storms occur; row and forage crops fail to germinate; decreased yields for irrigated crops and very large yield reduction for dry land crops are reported; need for supplemental feed, nutrients, protein, and water for livestock increases; herds are sold.

Much of the interior portions of southeastern Texas has received less than 0.10 inch of rainfall during the past 30 days. So far, 2022 is the fifth driest year to date over the past 128 years.

The US Department of Agriculture estimates that 24,489 acres of hay are in drought in Gonzales County, along with 4,039 acres of corn and 1,623 acres of haylage. Gonzales County also has an estimated 57,341 head of cattle and 1,321 sheep in drought conditions.

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